Hawk/Dove score
Each bank's score is the average of the speeches in the archive that carry a monetary policy signal. The scale runs from -10 (very dovish) to +10 (very hawkish).
A dovish stance leans towards rate cuts, a hawkish stance towards rate hikes. Speeches on regulation or supervision score 0 and are left out of the average — that means "no signal", not "balanced stance".
Committee scores at a glance
| Bank | Tilt | Score | Speeches | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoJ | hawkish | +6.5 | 2 | 21 September 2026 |
| RBA | hawkish | +6.0 | 1 (+2) | 22 September 2026 |
| Fed | hawkish | +4.7 | 11 (+10) | 07 October 2026 |
| ECB | hawkish | +3.3 | 3 (+12) | 07 October 2026 |
| BoE | slightly hawkish | +1.5 | 2 (+1) | 29 September 2026 |
The number in brackets in the speeches column counts speeches left out of the average because they carry no monetary policy signal.
How to read the index
The score is a summary, not a verdict. A single number cannot carry the context of a speech or the speaker's caveats. Read the rationale next to the score and, if possible, the source text.
Direction says more than level. A committee that was at +6 a month ago and is at +4 today is turning more dovish, even if the number still looks hawkish. As the archive grows we will show this change separately.
Everyone currently carries equal weight. The average makes no distinction for voting rights, seniority or chairmanship; a regional Fed president's speech counts as much as the chair's. Yet the chair's stance sets the committee's centre of gravity — so in periods with few speeches the average can mislead.
The sample is small. Our source is a feed that only returns recent speeches; the archive grows as the daily job runs. For banks with a single-digit number of speeches, the average is heavily influenced by any one speech.
Latest scored speeches
- ECBChristine Lagarde — Where AI risks meetno policy signal
- FedChristopher J Waller — The data version of Godzilla versus Kong - FRED takes on AIno policy signal
- FedPhilip N Jefferson — The US economy and monetary policy+4.0 (hawkish)
- ECBPhilip R Lane — Diagnostic challenges for ECB monetary policy+1.0 (slightly hawkish)
- FedMichelle W Bowman — Modernizing financial regulation - initial observations from eSLRno policy signal
- ECBIsabel Schnabel — Monetary policy in a world of overlapping shocks+6.0 (hawkish)
- ECBFrank Elderson — Supervisory risk appetite, efficiency and effectivenessno policy signal
- FedMichael S Barr — Economic conditions and monetary policy+7.0 (very hawkish)
- ECBBoris Vujčić — Resilience, integration and competitiveness - building the future of European bankingno policy signal
- FedMichelle W Bowman — Opening remarks - Community Bank Cyber Workshopno policy signal
Coverage
Speakers actually present in the archive. This is not a target list but a record of what has been collected so far.
| Bank | Speakers covered | Speeches |
|---|---|---|
| Fed | Christopher J Waller, John C Williams, Lisa D Cook, Michael S Barr, Michelle W Bowman, Philip N Jefferson | 21 |
| ECB | Boris Vujčić, Christine Lagarde, Claudia Buch, Frank Elderson, Isabel Schnabel, Philip R Lane, Piero Cipollone | 15 |
| BoE | Andrew Bailey, David Ramsden | 3 |
| RBA | Michele Bullock, Sarah Hunter | 3 |
| BoJ | Hajime Takata, Kazuyuki Masu | 2 |