Speech archive

Central bank speeches compiled from the BIS archive. Speech texts, summaries and the hawk/dove score are produced automatically every day; the newest entries may stay unscored until the next run.

ECB08 October 2026·Christine Lagardeno policy signal
Where AI risks meet
Opening the tenth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) in its 15th year, Lagarde recalled that the board was created to take a holistic view of the financial system, drawing on lessons from the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. She said the growing importance of artificial intelligence is testing this system-wide perspective. She noted that around nine in ten significant euro area banks use generative AI and that most securities firms expect to increase their investment in this area. She touched on the benefits AI can bring for data analysis, risk assessment and efficiency. The text covers only the introductory section and does not address monetary policy.
Fed07 October 2026·Christopher J Wallerno policy signal
The data version of Godzilla versus Kong - FRED takes on AI
Waller described FRED, the St. Louis Fed's economic data platform, as the greatest public good the Fed has created, and traced its development from typewritten bulletins in 1961 to more than 850,000 series today. He stressed that AI makes it easier to access and explain data but brings new risks such as hallucinations, bias and incorrect attribution of sources. He noted that FRED traffic is growing by 150 percent a year and that roughly half of visits now come from AI agents. He announced the FRED MCP Connector, which lets AI systems connect to FRED data, and said Fed Board data will soon be routed through FRED.
Fed07 October 2026·Philip N Jefferson+4.0 (hawkish)
The US economy and monetary policy
Jefferson said the US economy has remained resilient despite the energy shock, the AI investment boom and shifts in trade policy, with growth running close to potential and unemployment at 4.1 percent, close to maximum employment. He noted that inflation has been above the 2 percent target for more than five years, that PCE inflation rose to 3.4 percent in August, and that he is concerned energy prices could lead to a lasting increase in inflation. He described the risks to growth and employment as balanced and the risks to inflation as tilted to the upside. He said he supported September's 25 basis point rate hike to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored, that future moves will depend on the data, the outlook and the balance of risks, and that he will keep assessing whether inflation is returning to target fast enough.
ECB07 October 2026·Philip R Lane+1.0 (slightly hawkish)
Diagnostic challenges for ECB monetary policy
Lane explained that the ECB bases its rate decisions on the inflation outlook, underlying inflation dynamics and the strength of monetary transmission, and said the key diagnostic challenge is to identify how the energy supply shock affects medium-term inflation. He noted that headline inflation rose to 3.8 percent in September while non-energy inflation remained contained at 2.3 percent, and that underlying measures show no lasting upward shift in medium-term inflation. He said the second wave of energy prices since July poses upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth; on the other hand, fiscal tightening in 2027-28, "demand destruction" channels and the marked rise in long-term rates will slow growth and dampen transmission more than projected. He said monetary policy remains in a "middle ground" where a measured response is appropriate, that raising the rate from 2.00 to 2.50 percent was prudent, but that there is no pre-set rate path and decisions will be taken meeting by meeting, based on the data.
Fed07 October 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Modernizing financial regulation - initial observations from eSLR
Bowman explained that the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) requirement for large banks had become binding and was constraining banks' capacity to intermediate in the Treasury market. She said the recalibration finalised in November 2025 and in effect since April 2026 ties each GSIB's eSLR buffer to its systemic footprint. Early results show dealers' Treasury positions rising from about 600 billion dollars to more than 700 billion dollars, bid-ask spreads narrowing and market functioning improving. She stressed that regulations should be reviewed continuously, based on data, when they do not work as intended.
ECB07 October 2026·Isabel Schnabel+6.0 (hawkish)
Monetary policy in a world of overlapping shocks
Schnabel argued that the view that supply shocks should be "looked through" is too simple: whatever the type of shock, the optimal response is to tighten if the projected inflation path rises above target. She said the new energy shock is hitting an economy in which services inflation and unit labour costs are still high, while the AI boom and defence spending are supporting demand. She stressed that oil and gas prices have moved towards the adverse scenario since the projections' cut-off date, implying a larger and more persistent deviation of inflation from target, and that central banks cannot wait for indirect and second-round effects to materialise. She said strong credit dynamics may signal that financial conditions are not yet restrictive and that the natural rate may have risen, while acknowledging that the economy could respond more strongly than expected to the recent tightening.
ECB06 October 2026·Frank Eldersonno policy signal
Supervisory risk appetite, efficiency and effectiveness
Frank Elderson, Vice-Chair of the ECB's Supervisory Board, said effective supervision in an environment complicated by geopolitical fragmentation, technological change and climate risks rests on three pillars: sharper risk prioritisation, simpler and more efficient supervision, and timely remediation. He said the ECB has consciously raised its supervisory risk appetite through its risk tolerance framework, streamlined guidance documents and shortened approval times. He stressed that the root causes of weaknesses must be addressed in a timely manner, with enforcement where necessary. He argued that strong prudential standards are a foundation for competitiveness rather than an obstacle, and underlined the importance of international standards and cooperation between authorities.
Fed06 October 2026·Michael S Barr+7.0 (very hawkish)
Economic conditions and monetary policy
Fed Governor Michael Barr said the US economy has grown solidly and gained momentum in 2026, while the labour market is roughly in balance and unemployment of 4.1 percent is close to maximum employment. He noted that inflation has been above the 2 percent target for five and a half years; with high energy prices and the AI investment wave feeding into prices, progress towards the target has gone off track and he does not see inflation on course to return to 2 percent in a timely way. He added that AI could raise the neutral rate (r*) through higher productivity, but that it is too early to tell. Recalling that the FOMC raised rates unanimously this month, he said that in his baseline further policy adjustments will likely be needed to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner.
ECB06 October 2026·Boris Vujčićno policy signal
Resilience, integration and competitiveness - building the future of European banking
At the ESRB's 15th anniversary conference, Boris Vujčić argued that although post-crisis reforms are being questioned, the strong balance sheets of European banks today are a strategic advantage. He outlined the ECB's simplification proposals, such as reducing capital buffers to two, bringing MREL and TLAC closer together and a simpler regime for small banks. He said capital requirements are not currently a binding constraint on lending and that lowering them is unlikely to increase credit meaningfully. He stressed that the real source of competitiveness is completing the banking union and the capital markets union, and financial integration.
Fed06 October 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Opening remarks - Community Bank Cyber Workshop
Opening the 2026 Community Bank Cyber Workshop, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stressed that many community banks have suffered serious cyber incidents over the past year and highlighted the importance of cyber hygiene. She said AI gives attackers the ability to find vulnerabilities quickly and run sophisticated social engineering campaigns, while also becoming a critical tool for defence. She presented the Financial Stability Board's report on the responsible use of AI and asked small banks for feedback. She said regulators continue to tailor IT examinations to banks' risk profiles.
Fed06 October 2026·Lisa D Cook+4.0 (hawkish)
The dual mandate in rural America
Fed Governor Lisa Cook discussed labour market and inflation dynamics in rural America, saying the national labour market is largely stable and unemployment is historically low. She explained that labour force participation and job creation are lower in rural areas than in cities, and that energy and housing costs weigh more heavily on rural households. She stressed that, rural or urban, inflation has been too high for too long and has been above the 2 percent target for more than five years. Noting that she voted for the 25 basis point hike at the September meeting, she said she is committed to returning inflation to target while preserving the strength of the labour market.
Fed05 October 2026·Christopher J Wallerno policy signal
Payments in the age of AI agents
In his speech at Sibos, Fed Governor Christopher Waller discussed the role of AI in payment systems. He said large language models could make cross-border payments more efficient and secure by reducing false alarms in sanctions screening and anti-money laundering, but that they also increase the risk of cyberattacks. He noted that "agentic commerce", in which AI agents make purchases, is at an early stage and that the biggest obstacle is building trust around identity verification, liability and fraud. He stressed that interoperable standards and the choice between open and closed systems could shape the market structure.
Fed05 October 2026·John C Williams+6.0 (hawkish)
Unwavering dedication
New York Fed President Williams said the US economy has held up well despite major shocks, the labour market remains strong and risks to the employment goal have diminished. He stressed that inflation at around 3.7 percent is clearly too high and that risks to price stability have increased because of energy prices linked to the Middle East and demand pressure from AI investment. Recalling that the FOMC raised the policy rate by a quarter point to a 3.75-4 percent range in September, Williams said returning inflation to 2 percent is job number one. He said there is no need to rush, but that one more rate hike towards the end of the year may be appropriate if the economy evolves in line with his forecast.
ECB30 September 2026·Claudia Buchno policy signal
Digital innovation - hindrance or booster for banks’ business models?
ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch discussed how digital innovation (AI, tokenisation, cloud services, quantum computing) is transforming banks' business models and creating new risks. She said online banking can amplify extreme deposit outflows to some extent, but that there is no evidence it increases deposit volatility in normal times. She highlighted tokenised deposits and the importance of preserving settlement in central bank money through the Eurosystem's Pontes and Appia projects. She said supervisors expect banks to have long-term digitalisation strategies, strong governance and adequate budgets, and stressed that loosening prudential standards would weaken banks' resilience.
ECB30 September 2026·Christine Lagarde+3.0 (hawkish)
Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
At the European Parliament hearing, Lagarde said the euro area economy has remained resilient despite the energy shock, with headline inflation rising to 3.2 percent in August and core inflation easing to 2.4 percent. She explained that the ECB raised policy rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, justifying the move by its commitment to inflation stabilising at the 2 percent target over the medium term. She said the inflation outlook has risen but there is not yet evidence that energy prices are feeding into wages, and that higher long-term rates will slow growth, stressing that policy remains in a "middle ground". In the second half of the speech she discussed the possible effects of AI on inflation through productivity, investment and the labour market, and the steps Europe must take for AI sovereignty.
Fed29 September 2026·Lisa D Cook+6.0 (hawkish)
An update on AI and the economy
Fed Board member Lisa Cook assessed the effects of AI on inflation and employment, saying AI investment is creating inflationary pressure in the short term and delaying the return to the 2 percent target. Pointing to rising prices for electricity, water and core goods, she said price pressures risk broadening, and that the moderate disinflation from productivity gains will not arrive in time to offset the pressure at the end of this year. She said she supported the 25 basis point rate hike at the September meeting, that inflation has been too high for too long and that she expects pressure from AI investment and oil prices to persist in the coming months. Stressing that the labour market can withstand higher rates, she said she will assess what policy rate may be needed to bring inflation back to target.
BoE29 September 2026·David Ramsden+4.0 (hawkish)
Quantitative tightening - the next chapter
BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden explained the MPC's decision in September 2026 to move from an annual approach to QT to a multi-year path: running down the stock of gilts held for monetary policy purposes entirely by the end of 2034 through annual sales and redemptions of 20 billion pounds, holding 120 billion pounds as backing for banknotes, and considering sales to the Treasury rather than the market. He stressed that Bank Rate remains the active policy tool and that the effect of QT on yields is relatively limited. He said he supported holding Bank Rate at 3.75 percent; having expected cuts before the Middle East conflict, the current holds effectively amount to tightening. He said risks to the inflation outlook are skewed to the upside and that, if upward pressures continue to build, a case for raising rates could emerge.
Fed28 September 2026·Philip N Jeffersonno policy signal
Discount window modernization and treasury market functioning
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson discussed modernising the discount window along three dimensions: standardising business processes, automation through the Discount Window Direct portal and collateral interoperability with the Federal Home Loan Banks. He said more than 60 percent of discount window loan requests are now made through this portal. He stressed that accepting Treasury securities as same-day collateral supports the functioning of the Treasury market by reducing forced sales in times of stress. He said the discount window eases temporary pressures in money markets and complements policy implementation, but that there is no room for complacency.
ECB24 September 2026·Claudia Buchno policy signal
Banking regulators, supervisors and their watchers
ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch argued that, for the accountability of banking regulation and supervision, a community of "regulation and supervision watchers" similar to central bank watchers should be developed. She called for regulations to be assessed comprehensively, not only by their direct effects on banks but also by their effects on societal goals such as growth, integration and financial stability. Drawing on FSB and Basel Committee evaluations, she said capital reforms have increased resilience without disrupting credit supply, while permanently lowering capital requirements has not boosted lending. She called for strengthening evaluation frameworks, working-paper repositories and infrastructure for access to granular data, and warned of the risk of loosening standards for short-term gains.
ECB24 September 2026·Christine Lagardeno policy signal
A new age of capital - growth, sovereignty and AI
In her Vienna speech, Lagarde drew a parallel between the pre-1873 "founders' era" and today's AI investment wave, stressing that European savings are largely flowing to US technology companies. She argued that AI is the best opportunity for productivity growth in the face of an ageing population and rising strategic investment needs, but that relying solely on imports will not be enough because of data, access and the technology frontier. She noted that AI borrowing in the US could also push up euro area long-term rates and that a possible market correction could affect Europe. She said Europe needs to deliver the savings and investments union for data centre capacity, open models and equity financing.
ECB22 September 2026·Christine Lagardeno policy signal
Europe seen from Normandy
At the Apple Festival in Normandy, Lagarde explained how European integration has turned regional strengths into global success through the large single market, protection of geographical indications and structural funds. She pointed out that, alongside external pressures such as US tariffs, the energy shock and the conflict in the Middle East, fragmentation in services and capital markets is limiting growth. She identified interconnecting energy grids and channelling savings into investment in Europe as priorities. She recalled in general terms that the ECB will keep inflation at 2 percent over time and prevent shocks from turning into persistent inflation, and highlighted the digital euro's contribution to sovereignty in payments.
ECB22 September 2026·Piero Cipolloneno policy signal
The future of euro cash - trusted today, designed for tomorrow
In his Brussels speech, marking 25 years of euro cash, Cipollone stressed that cash remains indispensable for financial inclusion, privacy, freedom of choice and resilience to disruptions. He welcomed the regulation proposal adopted by the European Parliament and the Council that strengthens the legal tender status of cash and the obligation to accept it. He said euro banknotes are being redesigned for security, sustainability and to connect with citizens, that ten design proposals have been put to a public survey and that a final decision will be taken towards the end of the year. He said cash and the digital euro will complement each other and strengthen monetary sovereignty.
RBA22 September 2026·Michele Bullock+6.0 (hawkish)
Opening statement - House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics
In her opening statement to the House of Representatives Economics Committee, Bullock said the RBA has raised the policy rate by a total of 75 basis points this year and that inflation is running at around 3.5 percent, above target. She said the Middle East conflict, the AI boom and climate events have increased global cost pressures and that upside inflation risks have begun to materialise. She stressed that a stronger policy response may be needed if inflation becomes embedded in price- and wage-setting, and that the key question at the next meeting will be whether the tightening so far is sufficient. While acknowledging the softening housing market as a downside risk, she said bringing inflation down is imperative; the rest of the statement covered payment system reforms and cash distribution.
BoJ21 September 2026·Kazuyuki Masu+6.0 (hawkish)
Economic activity, prices, and monetary policy in Japan
In his speech in Fukui, BoJ Policy Board member Masu said developments in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up oil and chemical prices, and that distribution costs, personnel expenses and food prices could create more persistent inflationary pressure. He said Japan has fully exited deflation, underlying inflation is very close to the 2 percent target and negative real interest rates should be eliminated as soon as possible. He said the policy rate (1.0 percent) remains below the neutral rate range (1.1-2.5 percent) and that he is convinced the rate needs to be raised firmly into this range to complete normalisation. He said the Bank will continue raising rates, judging the timing and pace in light of oil prices, AI-related demand and exchange rate developments.
BoJ16 September 2026·Hajime Takata+7.0 (very hawkish)
Economic activity, prices, and monetary policy in Japan
BoJ Policy Board member Hajime Takata said that, despite the rise in oil prices stemming from the Middle East, there is no marked slowdown in Japan's economy, wage growth remains strong, and rising producer prices are passing through to consumer prices, posing upside risks to inflation. Takata argued that 2026 marks a "regime change" in line with the global rate-hiking cycle and that rate hikes should no longer come at a fixed pace but in an agile, data-dependent way. Recalling that he proposed raising the policy rate to 1.25 percent at the July meeting, he stressed that the real interest rate is the lowest in the world and that the policy rate should be brought closer to the neutral rate. He said the Bank should move away from its current stance of supporting inflation and show the market its determination to prevent prices from overshooting the target. On reducing JGB purchases, he supported a cautious and gradual approach to preserve market functioning.
Fed16 September 2026·Christopher J Waller+4.0 (hawkish)
The economic outlook and some comments on my policy communication
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the economy and the labour market are holding up well, but that inflation has been well above the 2 percent target for five and a half years. He found the decline in three-month core inflation from 4.76 percent in February to 3.05 percent encouraging, but said he sees upside risks from energy prices, AI-driven technology goods prices and possible tariff increases. He said he would support holding rates if the August data show disinflation continuing, but would consider a rate hike if inflation comes in high. He stressed that current policy is only mildly restricting demand and that it would not take a big acceleration in inflation to push him towards tightening. In the final part of the speech he explained the difference between conditional "reaction function" communication and forward guidance.
ECB16 September 2026·Claudia Buchno policy signal
Bank resilience and sustainable growth - two sides of the same coin
ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch said the European banking sector has become much more resilient over the past decade, but that reforms that increase market integration and complete the banking union are needed to make the sector future-proof. She stressed that a common European deposit insurance scheme would support cross-border integration and weaken the bank-sovereign nexus. She said loosening capital requirements should not be seen as a growth strategy and that, with a CET1 ratio of around 16 percent, capital is not a binding constraint on credit supply. She also described steps to simplify supervision, such as reducing supervisory guidance, halving the reporting burden in stress tests and risk-based processes.
BoE16 September 2026·Andrew Baileyno policy signal
The institutional form of independent central banks - from history to contemporary challenges
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey examined the institutional legitimacy of independent central banks, starting from the intellectual traditions of thinkers such as Montesquieu, Locke and Hume. He argued that monetary and financial stability are public goods belonging to society as a whole, and that central bank independence serves to protect these goods from short-term political pressures. He stressed that the legitimacy of independence derives from Parliament's delegation of authority and from accountability. Noting that central banks are criticised both for being too close to financial circles and for over-regulating, and that populist movements pose a separate challenge, he highlighted the importance of transparency and communication with the public.
ECB16 September 2026·Boris Vujčićno policy signal
Listening to households - expectations, behaviour and monetary policy
At the inauguration of Michael Weber's professorship, ECB Vice-President Vujčić explained how household expectations are formed and why this matters for monetary policy transmission. He said that, unlike professional forecasters, households form expectations with selective attention, looking especially at salient prices such as food and fuel, and that the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey helps track how shocks are perceived, how uncertainty affects spending and how monetary tightening is transmitted differently through household balance sheets. He stressed that communication is part of policy transmission, that simple messages about the target increase credibility and that trust is ultimately earned through the central bank's performance. The speech ended with the importance of safeguarding survey data quality.
Fed17 August 2026·Lisa D Cook+5.0 (hawkish)
Outlook for the US and Alaskan economies
Cook finds the US economy resilient and growing at a solid pace, but says inflation remains stubbornly high and has exceeded the target for five years. In June, targeted PCE inflation was 3.7 percent year on year and core 3.3 percent, almost twice the target. She cites energy prices linked to the Middle East and the pressure that AI infrastructure investment is putting on chip, software and electricity prices as two new sources, and says the balance of risks has shifted towards inflation. She explains that she supports holding rates because three disinflationary forces are at work: tariff effects fading, oil falling back and AI-driven pressure easing. However, stressing the risk that five years of above-target inflation become embedded in pricing and wage behaviour, she says that in another environment one could afford to wait, but that this environment does not allow that luxury.
ECB17 August 2026·Philip R Laneno policy signal
AI and monetary policy
In this speech at the closing dinner of the ChaMP research network, Lane discusses in theoretical terms how AI affects the monetary policy stance. He says a natural starting point is to treat AI as a shock that permanently raises productivity, and that if households and firms quickly internalise this permanence, inflationary pressure could arise through the demand channel at the start of the transition. However, he argues that this is unrealistic: because of habit formation and individual income uncertainty, spending will adjust slowly, in which case the upfront inflationary effect will be largely muted. (BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech.)
RBA17 August 2026·Michele Bullockno policy signal
Monetary policy in an era of shocks
Bullock says the defining feature of recent years has been supply shocks becoming more frequent and more powerful: first the pandemic, then the energy price spike triggered by the war in Ukraine, and now the Middle East conflict, severe weather events and ongoing trade tensions. She notes that the outlook can change quickly and that new uncertainties can emerge as old risks fade. She says she will compare the impact of these developments on Australia with the oil shocks of the 1970s, and that while the world has become more shock-prone, the economy is more resilient than in the past, thanks in part to central banks' credible inflation targets. (BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech.)
ECB17 August 2026·Piero Cipolloneno policy signal
The cooperative spirit at the heart of the digital euro
Cipollone describes the common ground between the digital euro and cooperative banking. He recalls that money is the product of a social consensus, that it derives its value from the confidence that it will also be accepted tomorrow, and that this consensus is guaranteed by law. He stresses that the legal tender status of central bank money is the anchor of the monetary system and that trust in other forms of money rests on their convertibility at par into central bank money. Using the example of Italy's first cooperative bank, founded in 1883, he describes how the model based on mutual trust spread. (BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech.)
Fed10 August 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Opening remarks on Sound Practices for Artificial Intelligence
Bowman introduces the FSB's consultation report on the responsible use of AI in financial institutions. She says the report stresses that supervisory intensity should be set according to the use case in which institutions deploy AI and how critically they rely on it. She argues that low-risk uses should be handled with a lighter supervisory touch and that requirements designed for large institutions should not be applied unchanged to small ones. She says the report will be submitted to the US G-20 presidency at the end of the year.
Fed03 August 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Responsible innovation and financial inclusion
In this speech at the financial inclusion conference, Bowman explains how banks can widen access through responsible innovation. She stresses that the Fed's role is to set clear expectations and be transparent, not to micromanage banks' business decisions. She notes that AI has the potential to expand access to credit for consumers with thin credit histories but adequate cash flow, while uses that directly affect credit decisions raise heavier legal compliance issues. She says small banks do not have the same resources as large ones and that supervisory guidance should not be an obstacle to innovation.
Fed03 August 2026·Philip N Jefferson+3.0 (hawkish)
Navigating economic shocks - a monetary policymaker's perspective
Most of Jefferson's speech sets out a conceptual framework for how policymakers classify and respond to supply and demand shocks in real time. He says he is watching two current developments: the energy shock stemming from the Middle East and the macroeconomic effects of AI. He notes that the energy shock arriving when inflation has already been above target for some time forces the FOMC into a delicate balance between the two sides of its mandate, and that back-to-back shocks increase the risk of inflation becoming persistent. He supported holding the rate in the 3.50-3.75 percent range in June and believes the current stance will allow inflation to continue declining.
Fed03 August 2026·John C Williams+2.0 (slightly hawkish)
Stability of Thy Times
Williams finds the US economy resilient despite the Middle East conflict, with growth around 2 percent and unemployment stable in the 4.25-4.50 percent band. He says inflation, at 4 percent, is unquestionably too high and attributes this to three factors: tariffs, the energy and supply chain shock, and demand pressure from AI investment in certain groups of goods. On the other hand, he lists six reasons why inflation has peaked and will decline in the coming quarters, among them tariff effects being largely complete, the downward trend in rent inflation, the pullback in oil prices and anchored inflation expectations. He projects inflation will fall to 3.25 percent by year-end and reach the target in 2028, and considers the current rate stance "well positioned" for this.
Fed31 July 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Modernizing financial regulation
Bowman describes the FSB's work on modernising supervision and regulation and its implementation in the United States. She sets out four principles: prioritising material financial risks, scaling regulation to an institution's risk profile, putting transparency and accountability first, and keeping the framework open to responsible innovation. Drawing on the example of Silicon Valley Bank, she argues that a large number of supervisory findings does not mean effective supervision. She cites steps in the US such as the 2026 Basel III capital framework reform, the first-ever publication of supervisory principles and the updating of outdated asset thresholds.
BoE31 July 2026·Andrew Bailey-1.0 (slightly dovish)
Growth and regulation
Bailey's speech focuses mainly on growth and regulation, but the opening briefly addresses monetary policy: he says that before the Middle East conflict he expected inflation to return to the 2 percent target around April-May, and that evidence this would have happened without the shock had strengthened in recent months. He says he is confident inflation will return to target and that conditions are encouraging, but that it will take longer, adding that economic activity is "quite soft". The rest of the speech covers the UK's low potential growth over fifteen years, how well-designed regulation can support growth and the questions AI raises for both liability law and cybersecurity.
Fed31 July 2026·Lisa D Cook+5.0 (hawkish)
Economic outlook
Cook says she watches both sides of the dual mandate but that at this stage the risks of high inflation concern her more. She reads unemployment of 4.2 percent near the natural rate, a stable labour market and growth above expectations as signs that risks on the employment side have diminished; by contrast, she takes targeted inflation rising to 3.7 percent year on year in June and core goods prices rising at a 5 percent annual pace as evidence that inflation risk has intensified. Comparing the balance of risks to a seesaw, she says the scale has now tipped towards inflation. She says she voted to hold rates at the June meeting, but is prepared to act if she does not see signs of disinflation soon.
Fed31 July 2026·Michael S Barrno policy signal
Will artificial intelligence broadly raise living standards or drive income and wealth inequality?
Barr discusses whether AI will raise living standards broadly or deepen income and wealth inequality. He recalls that every major technological leap has had profound effects on the labour market and has created more jobs than it destroyed in the long run, but that during the transition the number of people displaced and the harm they suffer can be large and lasting. Citing the spread of the internet, he says it may have increased inequality while raising productivity, because it disproportionately benefited knowledge-intensive occupations. (BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech; the full text is in the PDF.)
Fed31 July 2026·Christopher J Waller+6.0 (hawkish)
Monetary policy at a crossroads
Waller finds the real side of the economy solid and says employment is close to the FOMC's maximum employment goal; his main concern is inflation. He finds the rise in core PCE inflation from 3 percent in December 2025 to 3.4 percent in May too broad-based to be explained by one-off effects from tariffs or the oil shock, and stresses that price increases have spread to services. He says he is determined not to repeat the mistake of acting too late in 2021, but that the FOMC can move more cautiously because today's labour market is not as tight as in 2022 and inflation expectations remain anchored. His baseline is to hold rates at the current level, but he states clearly that if another hot core inflation reading comes in, the FOMC will need to consider tightening in the near term.
RBA31 July 2026·Sarah Hunterno policy signal
Understanding supply shocks and their implications for monetary policy
Recalling the RBA's mandate of 2-3 percent inflation on average over the medium term and sustainable full employment, Hunter begins to explain how supply shocks should be read from a monetary policy perspective. She says the many forces affecting the economy's productive capacity, aggregate demand and costs need to be assessed together. She presents a simplified framework that combines both sides of the mandate in a single diagram: inflation on the vertical axis and the labour market's position between spare capacity and excess tightness on the horizontal axis. (BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech; the full text is in the PDF.)
Fed30 July 2026·Christopher J Wallerno policy signal
Two thoughts on the transmission of monetary policy
In this speech Waller discusses two methodological points about the monetary policy transmission mechanism without going into the current rate stance. First, initial conditions are decisive: in 2022, with two job openings per unemployed person, tightening worked mainly by reducing vacancies rather than sharply raising unemployment; linear models based on historical averages could not have predicted this. Second, forward guidance has two faces: used correctly it speeds up transmission, but when it is rigid, as in 2020-21, it can tie the FOMC's hands and needlessly delay rate increases.