RBA faiz kararı · 17 Mart 2026

At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to [silindi: 3.85] [eklendi: 4.10] per cent.

While inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025. [silindi: The Board has been closely monitoring] [eklendi: Information since] the [silindi: economy and judges] [eklendi: February meeting suggests] that some of the increase in inflation reflects greater capacity pressures. [eklendi: In addition, the conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel prices, which, if sustained, will add to inflation. Short-term measures of inflation expectations have already risen.] As a result, the Board [silindi: considers] [eklendi: judged] that [silindi: inflation] [eklendi: there] is [silindi: likely to] [eklendi: a material risk that inflation will] remain above target for [silindi: some time.] [eklendi: longer than previously anticipated.]

[silindi: Growth in private demand has strengthened substantially more than expected, driven by both household spending and investment. Activity and prices in the housing market are also continuing to pick up. Financial conditions eased over 2025 and it is uncertain whether they remain restrictive. Credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of earlier interest rate reductions are yet to flow through fully to aggregate demand, prices and wages. More recently, the exchange rate, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen following a rise in market expectations for the cash rate. Capacity] [eklendi: Higher capacity] pressures reflect, in part, the greater momentum in demand [silindi: seen] in [silindi: recent months.] [eklendi: the latter part of 2025. Growth in private demand strengthened substantially more than was expected in mid-2025, although the composition of that growth surprised in the December quarter. Business investment was above expectations and consumption was below expectations. Meanwhile, growth in unit labour costs declined. More recently, the unemployment rate has been a little lower than expected and measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates. Activity and prices in the housing market grew strongly over the past year, although housing price growth moderated somewhat at the start of 2026.]

[silindi: Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain a little tight and that they have stabilised in recent months, in line with the pick-up in momentum in economic activity. The unemployment rate has been a little lower than expected and measures of labour underutilisation remain at low rates. Growth in the Wage Price Index has eased from its peak, but broader measures of wages growth continue to be strong and growth in unit labour costs remains high.] [eklendi: Financial conditions have tightened a little this year, but the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive is uncertain. Credit is readily available to both households and businesses and the effects of interest rate reductions in 2025 are yet to flow through fully to aggregate demand, prices and wages. The exchange rate, money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen over the past month. In large part, higher interest rates reflect expectations for the path of monetary policy, which have risen in Australia and most other advanced economies in response to the expected inflationary implications of the conflict in the Middle East.]

[silindi: On the domestic side, if growth in demand is stronger than expected, and growth in the economy’s supply capacity remains limited, it is likely to add further to capacity pressures. Uncertainty in the global economy remains significant but so far there has been little or no depressing effect on the Australian economy; indeed, recent growth and trade in Australia’s major trading partners has surprised on the upside.] There are [eklendi: material] uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation and the extent to which monetary policy is restrictive. [eklendi: Globally, the conflict in the Middle East poses substantial risks in both directions. A longer or more severe conflict could put further upward pressure on global energy prices; this will push up near-term inflation and could also increase inflation further out if it impairs supply capacity or price rises get built into longer term inflation expectations. Higher prices and prolonged uncertainty may cause growth to be lower in Australia’s major trading partners and also in Australia.]

Decision

A wide range of data over recent months have confirmed that inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025. While part of the pick-up in inflation is assessed to reflect temporary factors, [silindi: it is evident] [eklendi: the Board judged] that [silindi: private demand is growing more quickly than expected,] [eklendi: the labour market has tightened a little recently and] capacity pressures are [eklendi: slightly] greater than previously [silindi: assessed and labour market conditions are a little tight.] [eklendi: assessed. Developments in the Middle East remain highly uncertain, but under a wide range of possible scenarios could add to global and domestic inflation.]

[silindi: The] [eklendi: In light of these considerations, the] Board judged that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time and [silindi: it was appropriate] [eklendi: that the risks have tilted further] to [silindi: increase] the [silindi: cash rate target.] [eklendi: upside, including to inflation expectations. It was therefore appropriate to increase the cash rate target.]

The Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. In doing so, it will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic [silindi: demand,] [eklendi: demand] and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. [silindi: The] [eklendi: Monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments and the] Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full [silindi: employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.] [eklendi: employment. It will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.]

[silindi: Today’s policy decision was unanimous.] [eklendi: Today’s policy decision was made by majority: five members voted to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.10 per cent; four members voted to leave the cash rate target unchanged at 3.85 per cent.]