RBA faiz kararı · 29 Eylül 2026

At its meeting today, the Board decided to [silindi: leave] [eklendi: increase] the cash rate target [silindi: unchanged at 4.35] [eklendi: by 25 basis points to 4.60] per cent.

[silindi: Inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and information since the beginning of this year confirms that some of the increase reflected greater capacity pressures. While the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation has so far been less than expected, headline inflation is still too high. Trimmed mean inflation also remains elevated and is little changed from the March quarter. Oil and most related commodity prices remain higher than they were prior to the Middle East conflict.] [eklendi: Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising. The conflict in the Middle East has broadened and global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts. AI-related demand is driving rapid growth in global prices for technology-related goods. And there remains pressure on domestic capacity.] [silindi: Some] [eklendi: Liaison indicates that] firms [eklendi: are] experiencing cost pressures [eklendi: and] are [eklendi: either] increasing the prices of their goods and services [silindi: and others are] [eklendi: or] looking to do so. Short-term measures of inflation expectations [silindi: have eased but] remain [silindi: higher than earlier in the year.] [eklendi: elevated. And recent inflation outcomes in Australia were stronger than expected at the previous meeting.]

[silindi: Financial conditions have tightened in response to three increases in the cash rate target this year. Money market interest rates and government bond yields have risen, and the exchange rate has appreciated. Momentum in the housing market has shifted, with housing prices falling in some capital cities and new housing loans declining noticeably. Labour market leading indicators point to only limited easing in the near term.] [eklendi: Growth in output has slowed but, at the margin, was stronger than expected in the June quarter.] There are signs that [eklendi: growth in] consumer spending [silindi: growth] is [silindi: slowing] [eklendi: easing] gradually as expected, [silindi: while growth] [eklendi: although housing prices have fallen] in [silindi: business debt] [eklendi: most capital cities] and [silindi: investment is strong.] [eklendi: new housing loans have declined noticeably.] Labour market conditions have eased [silindi: by a little more than] [eklendi: broadly as] expected in recent [silindi: months.] [eklendi: months, and labour market leading indicators are broadly stable. Meanwhile, growth in business investment and debt is strong.]

There continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation. [silindi: Resolution of the] [eklendi: The] Middle East conflict remains [silindi: uncertain,] [eklendi: unresolved,] and there are scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than forecast. Global oil supply [silindi: will take time to recover,] [eklendi: disruptions are] maintaining upward pressure on global [eklendi: and domestic] energy prices and [silindi: inflation, in which case domestic inflationary pressures could be higher than expected.] [eklendi: inflation.] A period of prolonged uncertainty may also cause growth to be lower overseas and in Australia. [silindi: So far,] [eklendi: To date, however,] growth in Australia’s major trading partners has been stronger than expected, as the boost from AI-related investment has outweighed the adverse effects of the Middle East conflict. In Australia, [silindi: historically] weak productivity growth continues to constrain potential [silindi: growth.] [eklendi: growth and there are uncertainties about the economic effects of the downturn in the housing market.]

Decision

[silindi: The disruption to global oil supply is adding directly to inflation and there are indications that higher fuel prices are being passed through to prices of other goods and services, so inflation is likely to remain high for some time.] [eklendi: Since the previous meeting, some of the upside risks to inflation are materialising. There have been further disruptions to global oil supply and recent data suggest that growth and inflation in Australia have been higher than expected. Higher fuel prices have partially been passed through to prices of other goods and services.] This inflation impulse is in addition to the effect of capacity pressures in the economy.

The Board remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become embedded. [silindi: But inflation is still too high. It is not expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027 and there are upside risks to this projection. With monetary policy judged to be somewhat restrictive, the Board decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged while it assesses how the economy is evolving. The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise.] To achieve this, growth in aggregate demand needs to remain subdued [eklendi: for a period] to reduce capacity pressures and bring inflation back to target. [silindi: Following] [eklendi: The] three increases in the cash rate target since the beginning of the [silindi: year,] [eklendi: year have tightened] financial conditions [silindi: are now tighter than they were,] and the economy appears to be [silindi: slowing as expected.] [eklendi: slowing. But inflation is still too high and the Board judged that, in light of recent developments, a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support a return of inflation to target in a reasonable period.]

[eklendi: The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed.] Accordingly, the Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions. Monetary policy is well placed to respond to [silindi: developments] [eklendi: developments,] and the Board is focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment.

Today’s policy decision was unanimous.