Rate probabilities and expectations
Market-implied expectations for the Fed and BoE; results of surveys of analysts and economists for the ECB and CBRT. They are different things: market pricing changes daily, surveys are run once per meeting or month.
Fed — rate probabilitiesmarket pricing
Rate expectations reflected in option prices. Data as of the close of 08 October 2026.
What do these numbers mean?
Expected rate path
The average rate the market prices for each three-month period, with the 25th–75th percentile range. The shaded horizontal band shows the current target range.
- Mean expectation
- Likely range (25th–75th percentile)
- Current target range
A band that widens in later periods means uncertainty is rising, even if the average expectation stays similar.
Period 16 June 2027 – 16 September 2027
The current target range is 3.75–4.00%. For this period the market prices a 84.1% chance that the average rate ends up above this range, 10.2% below it and 5.6% within it. The most likely band is 4.50–4.75% (16.9%).
- Above range
- 84.1%
- Within range
- 5.6%
- Below range
- 10.2%
Probability of average SOFR falling into each 25 basis point band
The bands shown add up to 95.7%; the remaining 4.3% belongs to tail values the source does not publish as separate bands. The direction probabilities include this share.
FOMC meetings in this period: 28 July 2027, 15 September 2027
Source and licence
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta — Market Probability Tracker. The distributions are derived from CME three-month SOFR option prices.
The Atlanta Fed Market Probability Tracker is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed, its president, the Federal Reserve System or the FOMC. The data may be used for personal and educational purposes only. Copyright © Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
CME Group market data are used, with permission from CME, as a source of information for this report. CME Group has no other connection to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's products and services and does not sponsor, endorse, recommend, or promote the report, its contents, or the authors. CME Group does not guarantee the accuracy and/or the completeness of any market data.
ECB — deposit facility rate expectations
The ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, results published on 11 September 2026. It reflects analysts' expectations, not market pricing, and is run before each Governing Council meeting.
- Hike
- 18.4%
- Hold
- 81.3%
- Cut
- 0.3%
| Meeting | Median expectation | 25th–75th percentile | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 September 2026 | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| 29 October 2026 | 2.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 17 December 2026 | 2.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 04 February 2027 | 2.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 18 March 2027 | 2.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 29 April 2027 | 2.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 10 June 2027 | 2.50% | 2.25% – 2.50% | — |
| 22 July 2027 | 2.50% | 2.25% – 2.50% | — |
Probabilities are the average of the odds analysts assign to each size of change (cut: −25 bp or more, hold: 0 and ±10 bp, hike: +25 bp or more). The survey is run before the meeting and the results are published after it, so the first row of the table is usually already in the past. Source: ECB — Survey of Monetary Analysts.
BoE — Bank Rate expectations
Derived from the OIS yield curve published by the Bank of England; curve dated 09 October 2026. Current Bank Rate 3.75%.
- 25 bp hike
- 52.0%
- Hold
- 48.0%
- 25 bp cut
- 0.0%
| MPC meeting | Expected Bank Rate | Change at meeting | Versus today |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 November 2026 | 3.88% | +13 bp | +13 bp |
| 17 December 2026 | 4.05% | +17 bp | +30 bp |
| 04 February 2027 | 4.22% | +17 bp | +47 bp |
| 18 March 2027 | 4.37% | +15 bp | +62 bp |
| 29 April 2027 | 4.51% | +14 bp | +76 bp |
| 17 June 2027 | 4.62% | +12 bp | +87 bp |
Method: the average of the curve between one meeting and the next is the overnight rate expected for that period; its difference from the current period gives the change expected at each meeting. The probability is that change divided by a 25 basis point step (e.g. +13 bp ≈ 52% chance of a hike). Because the curve is smoothed and the term premium is not separated out, the figures are approximate; uncertainty grows for later meetings. Source: Bank of England — Yield curves.
CBRT — policy rate expectations
CBRT Survey of Market Participants, September 2026. It is the average of economists' and market participants' expectations — not market pricing — and is published once a month.
| MPC meeting | Survey expectation | Actual / difference |
|---|---|---|
| 10 September 2026 | 37.00% | decided 37.00% |
| 22 October 2026 | 36.00% | −100 bp vs today |
| 10 December 2026 | 35.07% | −193 bp vs today |
The survey's "first meeting" is the first MPC meeting in the survey month; because responses are collected before it, that row may already be in the past — in that case the actual decision is shown next to it. Source: CBRT — Survey of Market Participants (EVDS).
Why not the BoJ and RBA?