Stability of Thy Times
Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Partnership for New York City, New York City, 15 July 2026.
Finding inflation "unquestionably too high" gives a mildly hawkish tone; however, his view that the peak is behind us, his projection of a gradual decline and the absence of any mention of tightening keep the score close to neutral.
Summary
Williams finds the US economy resilient despite the Middle East conflict, with growth around 2 percent and unemployment stable in the 4.25-4.50 percent band. He says inflation, at 4 percent, is unquestionably too high and attributes this to three factors: tariffs, the energy and supply chain shock, and demand pressure from AI investment in certain groups of goods. On the other hand, he lists six reasons why inflation has peaked and will decline in the coming quarters, among them tariff effects being largely complete, the downward trend in rent inflation, the pullback in oil prices and anchored inflation expectations. He projects inflation will fall to 3.25 percent by year-end and reach the target in 2028, and considers the current rate stance "well positioned" for this.
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Fed (Federal Reserve) · United States
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