Monetary policy in an era of shocks
Speech by Ms Michele Bullock, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at the Anika Foundation Fundraising Lunch, Sydney, 28 July 2026.
The available text sets out the framework of supply shocks and describes how credible inflation targeting contributes to resilience; it contains no statement on the RBA's current rate stance.
This speech carries no signal about the monetary policy stance. Its score of zero means "no signal", not "balanced stance", so it is not included in the bank's average score.
Summary
Bullock says the defining feature of recent years has been supply shocks becoming more frequent and more powerful: first the pandemic, then the energy price spike triggered by the war in Ukraine, and now the Middle East conflict, severe weather events and ongoing trade tensions. She notes that the outlook can change quickly and that new uncertainties can emerge as old risks fade. She says she will compare the impact of these developments on Australia with the oil shocks of the 1970s, and that while the world has become more shock-prone, the economy is more resilient than in the past, thanks in part to central banks' credible inflation targets. (BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech.)
The summary and score are produced by a language model and are no substitute for the original text. Source: BIS Central Bankers' Speeches →
BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech; the summary and score are based on the limited text. See the PDF at the source link for the full text.
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RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) · Australia
Introductory section of the speech
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia. © Reserve Bank of Australia, licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). The text was extracted automatically from the publisher's PDF or web page; only line breaks were adjusted. Footnotes and tables may have turned into plain text — see the source for the official text.
I'd like to begin by acknowledging the Traditional Custodians of the land on which we meet and pay my respects to Elders past and present. I extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people joining us today.
It's a privilege to be with you again for the Anika Foundation fundraising lunch, my third year joining as Governor. The Foundation's commitment to advancing youth mental health is making a lasting difference in the lives of young Australians and their families.
A defining and recurring feature of the global economy in recent years has been the increasing frequency and impact of supply shocks.
First, there was the shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Then the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to an energy price spike.
As some of the disruptions associated with these earlier adverse shocks began to recede, new risks have emerged. The conflict in the Middle East is disrupting energy markets, severe weather events have affected production and trade around the world, and continuing trade tensions add further ambiguity.
The outlook can change quickly, and uncertainty can re-emerge even as earlier risks begin to ease.
Today, I will discuss how recent global developments are affecting Australia and place them in historical context by looking back to the oil shocks of the 1970s.
The world has been more shock-prone in recent years, but the economy is more resilient than it was in the past. The adoption of credible inflation targets by central banks – to keep inflation low and stable – has played a key role in our improved resilience.