Guide
You don't need to be an economist to follow rate decisions. These short pieces help you read the numbers on this site; they explain general mechanisms and are not investment advice.
- How to read a rate decision
What to look at in a rate decision: the policy rate, basis points, the statement, votes, projections and what really moves markets, the gap with expectations.
- What happens when interest rates change?
How does a rate rise or cut feed through to deposits, loans, the currency, bonds and inflation? Transmission, time lags and expectations in plain language.
- What is the real interest rate?
Nominal versus real rates, the simple difference and the Fisher equation, past versus expected inflation, and how the site's real rate table is calculated.
- How are rate expectations measured?
How rate expectations are read from market prices and surveys, how to read the probabilities, and how a decision's surprise is measured.
- Glossary
Basis point, hawkish, dovish, forward guidance, OIS, real rate, FOMC… Short definitions of terms that come up when following rate decisions.