Rate decisions
Each decision is compared with the expectation formed before it: market pricing (BoE) or surveys of analysts and economists (Fed, ECB, CBRT). The statement is compared with the previous one and the changes are summarised. How to read a rate decision
September 2026
- RBA29 September 2026 · 4.60% (+25 bp)no expectation sourcestatement: more hawkish
- BoJ18 September 2026 · 1.25% (+25 bp)no expectation sourcestatement: more hawkish
- BoE17 September 2026 · 3.75% (hold)in line with expectations (−1 bp)statement: more hawkish
- Fed16 September 2026 · 3.75–4.00% (+25 bp)hawkish surprise (+25 bp)statement: more hawkish
- ECB10 September 2026 · 2.50% (+25 bp)in line with expectationsstatement: more hawkish
- CBRT10 September 2026 · 37.00% (hold)in line with expectationsstatement: more dovish
August 2026
- RBA11 August 2026 · 4.35% (hold)no expectation sourcestatement: mixed
July 2026
- BoJ31 July 2026 · 1.00% (hold)no expectation sourcestatement: more hawkish
- BoE30 July 2026 · 3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
- Fed29 July 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
- ECB23 July 2026 · 2.25% (hold)in line with expectations
- CBRT23 July 2026 · 37.00% (hold)in line with expectations
June 2026
- BoE18 June 2026 · 3.75% (hold)in line with expectations (+1 bp)
- Fed17 June 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
- RBA16 June 2026 · 4.35% (hold)no expectation source
- BoJ16 June 2026 · 1.00% (+25 bp)no expectation source
- ECB11 June 2026 · 2.25% (+25 bp)in line with expectations
- CBRT11 June 2026 · 37.00% (hold)in line with expectations
May 2026
- RBA05 May 2026 · 4.35% (+25 bp)no expectation source
April 2026
- ECB30 April 2026 · 2.00% (hold)in line with expectations
- BoE30 April 2026 · 3.75% (hold)in line with expectations (+1 bp)
- Fed29 April 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
- BoJ28 April 2026 · 0.75% (hold)no expectation source
- CBRT22 April 2026 · 37.00% (hold)dovish surprise (−75 bp)
March 2026
- ECB19 March 2026 · 2.00% (hold)in line with expectations
- BoE19 March 2026 · 3.75% (hold)in line with expectations (+2 bp)
- BoJ19 March 2026 · 0.75% (hold)no expectation source
- Fed18 March 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
- RBA17 March 2026 · 4.10% (+25 bp)no expectation source
- CBRT12 March 2026 · 37.00% (hold)hawkish surprise (+92 bp)
February 2026
- ECB05 February 2026 · 2.00% (hold)in line with expectations
- BoE05 February 2026 · 3.75% (hold)in line with expectations (−1 bp)
- RBA03 February 2026 · 3.85% (+25 bp)no expectation source
January 2026
- Fed28 January 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
- BoJ23 January 2026 · 0.75% (hold)no expectation source
- CBRT22 January 2026 · 37.00% (−100 bp)hawkish surprise (+50 bp)
The archive starts in January 2026. There is no republishable expectation source for the BoJ and RBA, so no surprise is calculated for them.