BoE rate decision · 17 September 2026

How the expectation moved

The rate expected for this meeting, from the previous decision up to this one. Dashed lines show the previous rate and the decision.

The BoE held Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6–3 vote; the statement says CPI inflation has risen and the risks to inflation are more to the upside than in July, and it decided to run the gilt stock down to zero.

• The vote was unchanged: 6–3 to hold, with three members again preferring a 25 basis point increase.
• The inflation assessment changed: instead of CPI inflation having fallen to 2.6%, the statement says it rose to 3.1% in August and is likely to rise further over coming quarters.
• The balance of risks hardened: risks to inflation are tilted to the upside 'more so' than in the July Monetary Policy Report, the risk of second-round effects grows if energy prices are more volatile, and the reference to 'clear signs of underlying disinflation' was dropped.
• A sentence was added saying activity has been slightly stronger than expected.
• The MPC voted unanimously to reduce the stock of gilts held for monetary policy purposes to zero, unwinding the remainder by the end of 2034 at an average £46 billion a year through annual sales of £20 billion alongside maturing gilts.

Tone of the statement: more hawkish than the previous one — Rising CPI inflation, risks more to the upside than in July and stronger-than-expected activity were added, while the reference to disinflation was dropped.

The summary and tone assessment were produced by a language model (claude-code/opus, prompt version 1); they are no substitute for the official text.