ECB rate decision · 10 September 2026
Policy rate raised by 25 bp to 2.50%.
Decision
Deposit facility rate
Expectation before the decision
ECB Survey of Monetary Analysts, September 2026 round — responses collected before the decision, results published on 11 September 2026
in line with expectations The decision matched the expectation before it.
- Hike
- 85.1%
- Hold
- 14.7%
- Cut
- 0.1%
A gap below 10 basis points counts as in line, 25 basis points or more as a surprise, and anything between as "slightly". Only expectations formed after the previous decision and before this one are used. How are expectations measured? · Source
What changed in the statement?
The ECB raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points, lifting the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, and stressed that the Middle East conflict will keep inflation well above target for an extended period.
- Rates were raised by 25 basis points instead of being kept unchanged; the deposit facility, main refinancing and marginal lending rates will be 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% respectively from 16 September 2026.
- The earlier language about closely monitoring the energy shock was replaced by the statement that the conflict continues to generate inflation pressures and that inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period.
- New projections see headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028; 2026 is unchanged while 2027 and 2028 were revised up.
- Growth is projected at 0.9% in 2026, 1.4% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028, revised up for 2026 and 2027 on the euro area economy's greater than expected resilience.
- A new assessment of a highly uncertain outlook with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth was added; the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach and the refusal to pre-commit to a rate path were retained.
Tone of the statement: more hawkish than the previous one — The text says inflation is 'set to remain well above target for an extended period', revises up the 2027–2028 inflation projections and highlights upside risks to inflation.
The summary and tone assessment were produced by a language model (claude-code/opus, prompt version 1); they are no substitute for the official text.
Difference from the previous statement
229 words added, 87 words removed. Additions are underlined, removals struck through.
[removed: The outlook for energy prices, while highly volatile, currently stands close to the baseline of the June Eurosystem staff projections and well above the levels recorded prior to the conflict in the Middle East. Uncertainty remains high and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out. The Governing Council is therefore closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects.] The Governing Council today decided to [removed: keep] [added: raise] the three key ECB interest rates [removed: unchanged.] [added: by 25 basis points. The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period.] [removed: The] [added: Today’s decision underscores the] Governing [removed: Council is committed] [added: Council’s commitment] to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.
[added: The baseline of the new ECB staff projections sees headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, the baseline foresees 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028. Compared with June, the baseline projection for inflation in 2026 is unchanged, while it has been revised up for 2027 and 2028. The baseline projection for economic growth is 0.9% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027 and 1.5% for 2028. This is an upward revision for both 2026 and 2027, mainly reflecting the greater than expected resilience of the euro area economy.]
[added: The outlook remains highly uncertain, with risks to the upside for inflation and to the downside for economic growth. In relation to the energy shock, the updated scenarios put together by staff illustrate the broad range of outcomes for how growth and inflation would evolve under different assumptions about its intensity and duration, as well as its indirect and second-round effects.]
With today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict. It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
Key ECB interest rates
[added: The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points.] [removed: The] [added: Accordingly, the] interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will [removed: remain unchanged at 2.25%, 2.40% and] [added: be increased to 2.50%,] 2.65% [removed: respectively.] [added: and 2.90% respectively, with effect from 16 September 2026.]
Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)
The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
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The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.
The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.
Source: European Central Bank (ECB). © European Central Bank; reproduced with the source acknowledged. Official statement →