CBRT rate decision · 10 September 2026
Policy rate held at 37.00%.
Decision
One-week repo (policy) rate
Expectation before the decision
CBRT Survey of Market Participants, August 2026 — published on 14 August 2026; participants' average
in line with expectations The decision matched the expectation before it.
A gap below 10 basis points counts as in line, 25 basis points or more as a surprise, and anything between as "slightly". Only expectations formed after the previous decision and before this one are used. How are expectations measured? · Source
What changed in the statement?
The CBRT kept its policy rate unchanged at 37 percent and said recent data point to a decline in the underlying trend of inflation.
- The previous wording that the underlying trend declined slightly in June and would rise temporarily in July was replaced by the statement that, despite monthly fluctuations, recent inflation data and leading indicators point to a decline in the underlying trend.
- The description of weak domestic demand was strengthened from 'becoming more evident' to 'confirmed' by activity data and the limited pass-through of supply shocks to domestic prices.
- The observation that energy prices had resumed an upward trend was replaced by the statement that elevated energy prices pose an upside risk to the inflation outlook.
- The tight policy stance, the commitment to tighten in case of a significant and persistent deterioration, and the emphasis on a cautious stance against upside risks were kept unchanged.
Tone of the statement: more dovish than the previous one — The statements that the underlying trend 'has declined' and that weak domestic demand is 'confirmed' strengthen the disinflation assessment, while the upside-risk warning on energy prices and the tightening commitment remain.
The summary and tone assessment were produced by a language model (claude-code/opus, prompt version 1); they are no substitute for the official text.
Difference from the previous statement
58 words added, 46 words removed. Additions are underlined, removals struck through.
The Monetary Policy Committee (the Committee) has decided to keep the policy rate (the one-week repo auction rate) at 37 percent. The Committee has also maintained the Central Bank overnight lending rate and the overnight borrowing rate at 40 percent and 35.5 percent, respectively.
[removed: The underlying trend of inflation decreased slightly in June. Leading indicators suggest that the underlying trend will rise temporarily in July. As a result of the growing uncertainty amid geopolitical developments, energy prices started trending up again. Recent data confirm the ongoing weakening in domestic demand.] [added: Despite monthly fluctuations, recent inflation figures and leading indicators suggest that the underlying trend of inflation is decelerating. Data on economic activity as well as the limited pass-through of supply shocks to domestic prices confirm the weakness in domestic demand. On the other hand, elevated energy prices amid geopolitical developments pose an upward risk to the inflation outlook.] The impact of geopolitical developments on the inflation outlook through the cost channel, economic activity and expectations is closely monitored.
The tight monetary policy stance, which will be maintained until price stability is achieved, will strengthen the disinflation process through demand, exchange rate, and expectation channels. The Committee will determine the policy rate by taking into account realized and expected inflation and its underlying trend in a way to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path in line with the interim targets. Monetary policy decisions are made prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis with a focus on the inflation outlook. In case of a significant and persistent deterioration in the inflation outlook, monetary policy stance will be tightened. The Committee reiterated that it remains highly attentive to upside risks on inflation.
In case of unanticipated developments in credit and deposit markets, monetary transmission mechanism will be supported via additional macroprudential measures. Liquidity conditions will continue to be closely monitored and liquidity management tools will continue to be used effectively.
The Committee will make its policy decisions so as to create the monetary and financial conditions necessary to reach the 5 percent inflation target in the medium term. The Committee will make its decisions in a predictable, data-driven and transparent framework.
The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be released within five working days.
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. Reproduced with the source acknowledged and for non-commercial purposes, as the CBRT's terms of use permit. Official statement →