Speech archive

Central bank speeches compiled from the BIS archive. Speech texts, summaries and the hawk/dove score are produced automatically every day; the newest entries may stay unscored until the next run.

ECB08 October 2026·Christine Lagardeno policy signal
Where AI risks meet
Opening the tenth annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) in its 15th year, Lagarde recalled that the board was created to take a holistic view of the financial system, drawing on lessons from the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis. She said the growing importance of artificial intelligence is testing this system-wide perspective. She noted that around nine in ten significant euro area banks use generative AI and that most securities firms expect to increase their investment in this area. She touched on the benefits AI can bring for data analysis, risk assessment and efficiency. The text covers only the introductory section and does not address monetary policy.
ECB07 October 2026·Philip R Lane+1.0 (slightly hawkish)
Diagnostic challenges for ECB monetary policy
Lane explained that the ECB bases its rate decisions on the inflation outlook, underlying inflation dynamics and the strength of monetary transmission, and said the key diagnostic challenge is to identify how the energy supply shock affects medium-term inflation. He noted that headline inflation rose to 3.8 percent in September while non-energy inflation remained contained at 2.3 percent, and that underlying measures show no lasting upward shift in medium-term inflation. He said the second wave of energy prices since July poses upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth; on the other hand, fiscal tightening in 2027-28, "demand destruction" channels and the marked rise in long-term rates will slow growth and dampen transmission more than projected. He said monetary policy remains in a "middle ground" where a measured response is appropriate, that raising the rate from 2.00 to 2.50 percent was prudent, but that there is no pre-set rate path and decisions will be taken meeting by meeting, based on the data.
ECB07 October 2026·Isabel Schnabel+6.0 (hawkish)
Monetary policy in a world of overlapping shocks
Schnabel argued that the view that supply shocks should be "looked through" is too simple: whatever the type of shock, the optimal response is to tighten if the projected inflation path rises above target. She said the new energy shock is hitting an economy in which services inflation and unit labour costs are still high, while the AI boom and defence spending are supporting demand. She stressed that oil and gas prices have moved towards the adverse scenario since the projections' cut-off date, implying a larger and more persistent deviation of inflation from target, and that central banks cannot wait for indirect and second-round effects to materialise. She said strong credit dynamics may signal that financial conditions are not yet restrictive and that the natural rate may have risen, while acknowledging that the economy could respond more strongly than expected to the recent tightening.
ECB06 October 2026·Frank Eldersonno policy signal
Supervisory risk appetite, efficiency and effectiveness
Frank Elderson, Vice-Chair of the ECB's Supervisory Board, said effective supervision in an environment complicated by geopolitical fragmentation, technological change and climate risks rests on three pillars: sharper risk prioritisation, simpler and more efficient supervision, and timely remediation. He said the ECB has consciously raised its supervisory risk appetite through its risk tolerance framework, streamlined guidance documents and shortened approval times. He stressed that the root causes of weaknesses must be addressed in a timely manner, with enforcement where necessary. He argued that strong prudential standards are a foundation for competitiveness rather than an obstacle, and underlined the importance of international standards and cooperation between authorities.
ECB06 October 2026·Boris Vujčićno policy signal
Resilience, integration and competitiveness - building the future of European banking
At the ESRB's 15th anniversary conference, Boris Vujčić argued that although post-crisis reforms are being questioned, the strong balance sheets of European banks today are a strategic advantage. He outlined the ECB's simplification proposals, such as reducing capital buffers to two, bringing MREL and TLAC closer together and a simpler regime for small banks. He said capital requirements are not currently a binding constraint on lending and that lowering them is unlikely to increase credit meaningfully. He stressed that the real source of competitiveness is completing the banking union and the capital markets union, and financial integration.
ECB30 September 2026·Claudia Buchno policy signal
Digital innovation - hindrance or booster for banks’ business models?
ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch discussed how digital innovation (AI, tokenisation, cloud services, quantum computing) is transforming banks' business models and creating new risks. She said online banking can amplify extreme deposit outflows to some extent, but that there is no evidence it increases deposit volatility in normal times. She highlighted tokenised deposits and the importance of preserving settlement in central bank money through the Eurosystem's Pontes and Appia projects. She said supervisors expect banks to have long-term digitalisation strategies, strong governance and adequate budgets, and stressed that loosening prudential standards would weaken banks' resilience.
ECB30 September 2026·Christine Lagarde+3.0 (hawkish)
Hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament
At the European Parliament hearing, Lagarde said the euro area economy has remained resilient despite the energy shock, with headline inflation rising to 3.2 percent in August and core inflation easing to 2.4 percent. She explained that the ECB raised policy rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, justifying the move by its commitment to inflation stabilising at the 2 percent target over the medium term. She said the inflation outlook has risen but there is not yet evidence that energy prices are feeding into wages, and that higher long-term rates will slow growth, stressing that policy remains in a "middle ground". In the second half of the speech she discussed the possible effects of AI on inflation through productivity, investment and the labour market, and the steps Europe must take for AI sovereignty.
ECB24 September 2026·Claudia Buchno policy signal
Banking regulators, supervisors and their watchers
ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch argued that, for the accountability of banking regulation and supervision, a community of "regulation and supervision watchers" similar to central bank watchers should be developed. She called for regulations to be assessed comprehensively, not only by their direct effects on banks but also by their effects on societal goals such as growth, integration and financial stability. Drawing on FSB and Basel Committee evaluations, she said capital reforms have increased resilience without disrupting credit supply, while permanently lowering capital requirements has not boosted lending. She called for strengthening evaluation frameworks, working-paper repositories and infrastructure for access to granular data, and warned of the risk of loosening standards for short-term gains.
ECB24 September 2026·Christine Lagardeno policy signal
A new age of capital - growth, sovereignty and AI
In her Vienna speech, Lagarde drew a parallel between the pre-1873 "founders' era" and today's AI investment wave, stressing that European savings are largely flowing to US technology companies. She argued that AI is the best opportunity for productivity growth in the face of an ageing population and rising strategic investment needs, but that relying solely on imports will not be enough because of data, access and the technology frontier. She noted that AI borrowing in the US could also push up euro area long-term rates and that a possible market correction could affect Europe. She said Europe needs to deliver the savings and investments union for data centre capacity, open models and equity financing.
ECB22 September 2026·Christine Lagardeno policy signal
Europe seen from Normandy
At the Apple Festival in Normandy, Lagarde explained how European integration has turned regional strengths into global success through the large single market, protection of geographical indications and structural funds. She pointed out that, alongside external pressures such as US tariffs, the energy shock and the conflict in the Middle East, fragmentation in services and capital markets is limiting growth. She identified interconnecting energy grids and channelling savings into investment in Europe as priorities. She recalled in general terms that the ECB will keep inflation at 2 percent over time and prevent shocks from turning into persistent inflation, and highlighted the digital euro's contribution to sovereignty in payments.
ECB22 September 2026·Piero Cipolloneno policy signal
The future of euro cash - trusted today, designed for tomorrow
In his Brussels speech, marking 25 years of euro cash, Cipollone stressed that cash remains indispensable for financial inclusion, privacy, freedom of choice and resilience to disruptions. He welcomed the regulation proposal adopted by the European Parliament and the Council that strengthens the legal tender status of cash and the obligation to accept it. He said euro banknotes are being redesigned for security, sustainability and to connect with citizens, that ten design proposals have been put to a public survey and that a final decision will be taken towards the end of the year. He said cash and the digital euro will complement each other and strengthen monetary sovereignty.
ECB16 September 2026·Claudia Buchno policy signal
Bank resilience and sustainable growth - two sides of the same coin
ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch said the European banking sector has become much more resilient over the past decade, but that reforms that increase market integration and complete the banking union are needed to make the sector future-proof. She stressed that a common European deposit insurance scheme would support cross-border integration and weaken the bank-sovereign nexus. She said loosening capital requirements should not be seen as a growth strategy and that, with a CET1 ratio of around 16 percent, capital is not a binding constraint on credit supply. She also described steps to simplify supervision, such as reducing supervisory guidance, halving the reporting burden in stress tests and risk-based processes.
ECB16 September 2026·Boris Vujčićno policy signal
Listening to households - expectations, behaviour and monetary policy
At the inauguration of Michael Weber's professorship, ECB Vice-President Vujčić explained how household expectations are formed and why this matters for monetary policy transmission. He said that, unlike professional forecasters, households form expectations with selective attention, looking especially at salient prices such as food and fuel, and that the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey helps track how shocks are perceived, how uncertainty affects spending and how monetary tightening is transmitted differently through household balance sheets. He stressed that communication is part of policy transmission, that simple messages about the target increase credibility and that trust is ultimately earned through the central bank's performance. The speech ended with the importance of safeguarding survey data quality.
ECB17 August 2026·Philip R Laneno policy signal
AI and monetary policy
In this speech at the closing dinner of the ChaMP research network, Lane discusses in theoretical terms how AI affects the monetary policy stance. He says a natural starting point is to treat AI as a shock that permanently raises productivity, and that if households and firms quickly internalise this permanence, inflationary pressure could arise through the demand channel at the start of the transition. However, he argues that this is unrealistic: because of habit formation and individual income uncertainty, spending will adjust slowly, in which case the upfront inflationary effect will be largely muted. (BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech.)
ECB17 August 2026·Piero Cipolloneno policy signal
The cooperative spirit at the heart of the digital euro
Cipollone describes the common ground between the digital euro and cooperative banking. He recalls that money is the product of a social consensus, that it derives its value from the confidence that it will also be accepted tomorrow, and that this consensus is guaranteed by law. He stresses that the legal tender status of central bank money is the anchor of the monetary system and that trust in other forms of money rests on their convertibility at par into central bank money. Using the example of Italy's first cooperative bank, founded in 1883, he describes how the model based on mutual trust spread. (BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech.)