Speech archive

Central bank speeches compiled from the BIS archive. Speech texts, summaries and the hawk/dove score are produced automatically every day; the newest entries may stay unscored until the next run.

Fed07 October 2026·Christopher J Wallerno policy signal
The data version of Godzilla versus Kong - FRED takes on AI
Waller described FRED, the St. Louis Fed's economic data platform, as the greatest public good the Fed has created, and traced its development from typewritten bulletins in 1961 to more than 850,000 series today. He stressed that AI makes it easier to access and explain data but brings new risks such as hallucinations, bias and incorrect attribution of sources. He noted that FRED traffic is growing by 150 percent a year and that roughly half of visits now come from AI agents. He announced the FRED MCP Connector, which lets AI systems connect to FRED data, and said Fed Board data will soon be routed through FRED.
Fed07 October 2026·Philip N Jefferson+4.0 (hawkish)
The US economy and monetary policy
Jefferson said the US economy has remained resilient despite the energy shock, the AI investment boom and shifts in trade policy, with growth running close to potential and unemployment at 4.1 percent, close to maximum employment. He noted that inflation has been above the 2 percent target for more than five years, that PCE inflation rose to 3.4 percent in August, and that he is concerned energy prices could lead to a lasting increase in inflation. He described the risks to growth and employment as balanced and the risks to inflation as tilted to the upside. He said he supported September's 25 basis point rate hike to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored, that future moves will depend on the data, the outlook and the balance of risks, and that he will keep assessing whether inflation is returning to target fast enough.
Fed07 October 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Modernizing financial regulation - initial observations from eSLR
Bowman explained that the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio (eSLR) requirement for large banks had become binding and was constraining banks' capacity to intermediate in the Treasury market. She said the recalibration finalised in November 2025 and in effect since April 2026 ties each GSIB's eSLR buffer to its systemic footprint. Early results show dealers' Treasury positions rising from about 600 billion dollars to more than 700 billion dollars, bid-ask spreads narrowing and market functioning improving. She stressed that regulations should be reviewed continuously, based on data, when they do not work as intended.
Fed06 October 2026·Michael S Barr+7.0 (very hawkish)
Economic conditions and monetary policy
Fed Governor Michael Barr said the US economy has grown solidly and gained momentum in 2026, while the labour market is roughly in balance and unemployment of 4.1 percent is close to maximum employment. He noted that inflation has been above the 2 percent target for five and a half years; with high energy prices and the AI investment wave feeding into prices, progress towards the target has gone off track and he does not see inflation on course to return to 2 percent in a timely way. He added that AI could raise the neutral rate (r*) through higher productivity, but that it is too early to tell. Recalling that the FOMC raised rates unanimously this month, he said that in his baseline further policy adjustments will likely be needed to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner.
Fed06 October 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Opening remarks - Community Bank Cyber Workshop
Opening the 2026 Community Bank Cyber Workshop, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stressed that many community banks have suffered serious cyber incidents over the past year and highlighted the importance of cyber hygiene. She said AI gives attackers the ability to find vulnerabilities quickly and run sophisticated social engineering campaigns, while also becoming a critical tool for defence. She presented the Financial Stability Board's report on the responsible use of AI and asked small banks for feedback. She said regulators continue to tailor IT examinations to banks' risk profiles.
Fed06 October 2026·Lisa D Cook+4.0 (hawkish)
The dual mandate in rural America
Fed Governor Lisa Cook discussed labour market and inflation dynamics in rural America, saying the national labour market is largely stable and unemployment is historically low. She explained that labour force participation and job creation are lower in rural areas than in cities, and that energy and housing costs weigh more heavily on rural households. She stressed that, rural or urban, inflation has been too high for too long and has been above the 2 percent target for more than five years. Noting that she voted for the 25 basis point hike at the September meeting, she said she is committed to returning inflation to target while preserving the strength of the labour market.
Fed05 October 2026·Christopher J Wallerno policy signal
Payments in the age of AI agents
In his speech at Sibos, Fed Governor Christopher Waller discussed the role of AI in payment systems. He said large language models could make cross-border payments more efficient and secure by reducing false alarms in sanctions screening and anti-money laundering, but that they also increase the risk of cyberattacks. He noted that "agentic commerce", in which AI agents make purchases, is at an early stage and that the biggest obstacle is building trust around identity verification, liability and fraud. He stressed that interoperable standards and the choice between open and closed systems could shape the market structure.
Fed05 October 2026·John C Williams+6.0 (hawkish)
Unwavering dedication
New York Fed President Williams said the US economy has held up well despite major shocks, the labour market remains strong and risks to the employment goal have diminished. He stressed that inflation at around 3.7 percent is clearly too high and that risks to price stability have increased because of energy prices linked to the Middle East and demand pressure from AI investment. Recalling that the FOMC raised the policy rate by a quarter point to a 3.75-4 percent range in September, Williams said returning inflation to 2 percent is job number one. He said there is no need to rush, but that one more rate hike towards the end of the year may be appropriate if the economy evolves in line with his forecast.
Fed29 September 2026·Lisa D Cook+6.0 (hawkish)
An update on AI and the economy
Fed Board member Lisa Cook assessed the effects of AI on inflation and employment, saying AI investment is creating inflationary pressure in the short term and delaying the return to the 2 percent target. Pointing to rising prices for electricity, water and core goods, she said price pressures risk broadening, and that the moderate disinflation from productivity gains will not arrive in time to offset the pressure at the end of this year. She said she supported the 25 basis point rate hike at the September meeting, that inflation has been too high for too long and that she expects pressure from AI investment and oil prices to persist in the coming months. Stressing that the labour market can withstand higher rates, she said she will assess what policy rate may be needed to bring inflation back to target.
Fed28 September 2026·Philip N Jeffersonno policy signal
Discount window modernization and treasury market functioning
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson discussed modernising the discount window along three dimensions: standardising business processes, automation through the Discount Window Direct portal and collateral interoperability with the Federal Home Loan Banks. He said more than 60 percent of discount window loan requests are now made through this portal. He stressed that accepting Treasury securities as same-day collateral supports the functioning of the Treasury market by reducing forced sales in times of stress. He said the discount window eases temporary pressures in money markets and complements policy implementation, but that there is no room for complacency.
Fed16 September 2026·Christopher J Waller+4.0 (hawkish)
The economic outlook and some comments on my policy communication
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the economy and the labour market are holding up well, but that inflation has been well above the 2 percent target for five and a half years. He found the decline in three-month core inflation from 4.76 percent in February to 3.05 percent encouraging, but said he sees upside risks from energy prices, AI-driven technology goods prices and possible tariff increases. He said he would support holding rates if the August data show disinflation continuing, but would consider a rate hike if inflation comes in high. He stressed that current policy is only mildly restricting demand and that it would not take a big acceleration in inflation to push him towards tightening. In the final part of the speech he explained the difference between conditional "reaction function" communication and forward guidance.
Fed17 August 2026·Lisa D Cook+5.0 (hawkish)
Outlook for the US and Alaskan economies
Cook finds the US economy resilient and growing at a solid pace, but says inflation remains stubbornly high and has exceeded the target for five years. In June, targeted PCE inflation was 3.7 percent year on year and core 3.3 percent, almost twice the target. She cites energy prices linked to the Middle East and the pressure that AI infrastructure investment is putting on chip, software and electricity prices as two new sources, and says the balance of risks has shifted towards inflation. She explains that she supports holding rates because three disinflationary forces are at work: tariff effects fading, oil falling back and AI-driven pressure easing. However, stressing the risk that five years of above-target inflation become embedded in pricing and wage behaviour, she says that in another environment one could afford to wait, but that this environment does not allow that luxury.
Fed10 August 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Opening remarks on Sound Practices for Artificial Intelligence
Bowman introduces the FSB's consultation report on the responsible use of AI in financial institutions. She says the report stresses that supervisory intensity should be set according to the use case in which institutions deploy AI and how critically they rely on it. She argues that low-risk uses should be handled with a lighter supervisory touch and that requirements designed for large institutions should not be applied unchanged to small ones. She says the report will be submitted to the US G-20 presidency at the end of the year.
Fed03 August 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Responsible innovation and financial inclusion
In this speech at the financial inclusion conference, Bowman explains how banks can widen access through responsible innovation. She stresses that the Fed's role is to set clear expectations and be transparent, not to micromanage banks' business decisions. She notes that AI has the potential to expand access to credit for consumers with thin credit histories but adequate cash flow, while uses that directly affect credit decisions raise heavier legal compliance issues. She says small banks do not have the same resources as large ones and that supervisory guidance should not be an obstacle to innovation.
Fed03 August 2026·Philip N Jefferson+3.0 (hawkish)
Navigating economic shocks - a monetary policymaker's perspective
Most of Jefferson's speech sets out a conceptual framework for how policymakers classify and respond to supply and demand shocks in real time. He says he is watching two current developments: the energy shock stemming from the Middle East and the macroeconomic effects of AI. He notes that the energy shock arriving when inflation has already been above target for some time forces the FOMC into a delicate balance between the two sides of its mandate, and that back-to-back shocks increase the risk of inflation becoming persistent. He supported holding the rate in the 3.50-3.75 percent range in June and believes the current stance will allow inflation to continue declining.
Fed03 August 2026·John C Williams+2.0 (slightly hawkish)
Stability of Thy Times
Williams finds the US economy resilient despite the Middle East conflict, with growth around 2 percent and unemployment stable in the 4.25-4.50 percent band. He says inflation, at 4 percent, is unquestionably too high and attributes this to three factors: tariffs, the energy and supply chain shock, and demand pressure from AI investment in certain groups of goods. On the other hand, he lists six reasons why inflation has peaked and will decline in the coming quarters, among them tariff effects being largely complete, the downward trend in rent inflation, the pullback in oil prices and anchored inflation expectations. He projects inflation will fall to 3.25 percent by year-end and reach the target in 2028, and considers the current rate stance "well positioned" for this.
Fed31 July 2026·Michelle W Bowmanno policy signal
Modernizing financial regulation
Bowman describes the FSB's work on modernising supervision and regulation and its implementation in the United States. She sets out four principles: prioritising material financial risks, scaling regulation to an institution's risk profile, putting transparency and accountability first, and keeping the framework open to responsible innovation. Drawing on the example of Silicon Valley Bank, she argues that a large number of supervisory findings does not mean effective supervision. She cites steps in the US such as the 2026 Basel III capital framework reform, the first-ever publication of supervisory principles and the updating of outdated asset thresholds.
Fed31 July 2026·Lisa D Cook+5.0 (hawkish)
Economic outlook
Cook says she watches both sides of the dual mandate but that at this stage the risks of high inflation concern her more. She reads unemployment of 4.2 percent near the natural rate, a stable labour market and growth above expectations as signs that risks on the employment side have diminished; by contrast, she takes targeted inflation rising to 3.7 percent year on year in June and core goods prices rising at a 5 percent annual pace as evidence that inflation risk has intensified. Comparing the balance of risks to a seesaw, she says the scale has now tipped towards inflation. She says she voted to hold rates at the June meeting, but is prepared to act if she does not see signs of disinflation soon.
Fed31 July 2026·Michael S Barrno policy signal
Will artificial intelligence broadly raise living standards or drive income and wealth inequality?
Barr discusses whether AI will raise living standards broadly or deepen income and wealth inequality. He recalls that every major technological leap has had profound effects on the labour market and has created more jobs than it destroyed in the long run, but that during the transition the number of people displaced and the harm they suffer can be large and lasting. Citing the spread of the internet, he says it may have increased inequality while raising productivity, because it disproportionately benefited knowledge-intensive occupations. (BIS publishes only the introductory section of this speech; the full text is in the PDF.)
Fed31 July 2026·Christopher J Waller+6.0 (hawkish)
Monetary policy at a crossroads
Waller finds the real side of the economy solid and says employment is close to the FOMC's maximum employment goal; his main concern is inflation. He finds the rise in core PCE inflation from 3 percent in December 2025 to 3.4 percent in May too broad-based to be explained by one-off effects from tariffs or the oil shock, and stresses that price increases have spread to services. He says he is determined not to repeat the mistake of acting too late in 2021, but that the FOMC can move more cautiously because today's labour market is not as tight as in 2022 and inflation expectations remain anchored. His baseline is to hold rates at the current level, but he states clearly that if another hot core inflation reading comes in, the FOMC will need to consider tightening in the near term.
Fed30 July 2026·Christopher J Wallerno policy signal
Two thoughts on the transmission of monetary policy
In this speech Waller discusses two methodological points about the monetary policy transmission mechanism without going into the current rate stance. First, initial conditions are decisive: in 2022, with two job openings per unemployed person, tightening worked mainly by reducing vacancies rather than sharply raising unemployment; linear models based on historical averages could not have predicted this. Second, forward guidance has two faces: used correctly it speeds up transmission, but when it is rigid, as in 2020-21, it can tie the FOMC's hands and needlessly delay rate increases.