Fed rate decision · 28 January 2026
Policy rate held at 3.50–3.75%.
Decision
Fed funds target range
Expectation before the decision
New York Fed Survey of Market Expectations, January 2026 round — responses collected by 20 January 2026, before the decision; median expectation
in line with expectations The decision matched the expectation before it.
- Hike
- 0.0%
- Hold
- 93.0%
- Cut
- 7.0%
Participants' average probability for the actual outcome: 93%.
A gap below 10 basis points counts as in line, 25 basis points or more as a surprise, and anything between as "slightly". Only expectations formed after the previous decision and before this one are used. How are expectations measured? · Source
What changed in the statement?
The summary is being prepared; it is added shortly after the statement is retrieved.
Difference from the previous statement
38 words added, 132 words removed. Additions are underlined, removals struck through.
[removed: More recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.] Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a [removed: moderate] [added: solid] pace. Job gains have [removed: slowed this year,] [added: remained low,] and the unemployment rate has [removed: edged up through September.] [added: shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.]
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual [removed: mandate and judges that downside risks to employment rose in recent months.] [added: mandate.]
In support of its [removed: goals and in light of the shift in the balance of risks,] [added: goals,] the Committee decided to [removed: lower] [added: maintain] the target range for the federal funds rate [removed: by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2] [added: at 3‑1/2] to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
[removed: The Committee judges that reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis.]
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. [removed: Bowman; Susan M. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Collins;] [added: Bowman;] Lisa D. [added: Cook; Beth M.] [removed: Cook;] [added: Hammack;] Philip N. [added: Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Anna Paulson.] Voting against this action were Stephen I. [removed: Goolsbee and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.] [added: Miran and Christopher J.] [removed: Miran,] [added: Waller,] who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by [removed: 1/2] [added: 1/4] percentage point at this [removed: meeting; and Austan D.] [added: meeting.]
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The text is in the public domain. Official statement →