Faiz Radarcentral bank tracker
Fed18 March 2026, Wednesday · 21:00 TRT

Fed rate decision · 18 March 2026

Policy rate held at 3.50–3.75%.

Decision

Previous rate
3.50–3.75%
New rate
3.50–3.75%
Change
no change

Fed funds target range

Expectation before the decision

New York Fed Survey of Market Expectations, March 2026 round — responses collected by 09 March 2026, before the decision; median expectation

survey
Expected rate
3.50–3.75%
0 bp
Decision
3.50–3.75%
0 bp
Gap
0 bp
in line with expectations

in line with expectations The decision matched the expectation before it.

Participants' average probabilities
Hike
0.0%
Hold
93.0%
Cut
6.0%

Participants' average probability for the actual outcome: 93%.

A gap below 10 basis points counts as in line, 25 basis points or more as a surprise, and anything between as "slightly". Only expectations formed after the previous decision and before this one are used. How are expectations measured? · Source

What changed in the statement?

The summary is being prepared; it is added shortly after the statement is retrieved.

Difference from the previous statement

27 words added, 13 words removed. Additions are underlined, removals struck through.

Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, and the unemployment rate has [removed: shown some signs of stabilization.] [added: been little changed in recent months.] Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. [added: The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain.] The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Beth M. Hammack; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. [removed: Miran and Christopher J.] Logan; [removed: and] Anna [removed: Paulson.] [added: Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller.] Voting against this action [removed: were] [added: was] Stephen I. [removed: Waller,] [added: Miran,] who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The text is in the public domain. Official statement →