Fed rate decision · 17 June 2026
Policy rate held at 3.50–3.75%.
Decision
Fed funds target range
Expectation before the decision
New York Fed Survey of Market Expectations, June 2026 round — responses collected by 08 June 2026, before the decision; median expectation
in line with expectations The decision matched the expectation before it.
- Hike
- 2.0%
- Hold
- 96.0%
- Cut
- 2.0%
Participants' average probability for the actual outcome: 96%.
A gap below 10 basis points counts as in line, 25 basis points or more as a surprise, and anything between as "slightly". Only expectations formed after the previous decision and before this one are used. How are expectations measured? · Source
What changed in the statement?
The summary is being prepared; it is added shortly after the statement is retrieved.
Difference from the previous statement
117 words added, 327 words removed. Additions are underlined, removals struck through.
[removed: Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices.]
[removed: The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.] [added: The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 – 0 vote:]
[removed: In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In support of its goals, the] [added: The] Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at [removed: 3‑1/2] [added: 3-1/2] to [removed: 3‑3/4 percent.] [added: 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.]
[removed: In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.] [added: Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.]
[removed: Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Philip N. Jefferson; Anna Paulson; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting; and Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.] [added: Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.]
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The text is in the public domain. Official statement →