Fed rate decision · 29 July 2026
Policy rate held at 3.50–3.75%.
Decision
Fed funds target range
Expectation before the decision
New York Fed Survey of Market Expectations, July 2026 round — responses collected by 20 July 2026, before the decision; median expectation
in line with expectations The decision matched the expectation before it.
- Hike
- 13.0%
- Hold
- 87.0%
- Cut
- 1.0%
Participants' average probability for the actual outcome: 87%.
A gap below 10 basis points counts as in line, 25 basis points or more as a surprise, and anything between as "slightly". Only expectations formed after the previous decision and before this one are used. How are expectations measured? · Source
What changed in the statement?
The summary is being prepared; it is added shortly after the statement is retrieved.
Difference from the previous statement
39 words added, 3 words removed. Additions are underlined, removals struck through.
The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a [removed: 12] [added: 9] – [removed: 0] [added: 3] vote:
The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee [removed: reaffirmed] [added: is continuing] its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system.
Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.
Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee will deliver price stability.
[added: Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.]
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The text is in the public domain. Official statement →