CBRT rate decision · 22 October 2026
Policy rate cut by 100 bp to 36.00%.
Decision
One-week repo (policy) rate
Expectation before the decision
CBRT Survey of Market Participants, October 2026 — published on 16 October 2026; participants' average
in line with expectations The decision matched the expectation before it.
How the expectation moved
The rate expected for this meeting, from the previous decision up to this one. Dashed lines show the previous rate and the decision.
A gap below 10 basis points counts as in line, 25 basis points or more as a surprise, and anything between as "slightly". Only expectations formed after the previous decision and before this one are used. How are expectations measured? · Source
What changed in the statement?
The CBRT cut its policy rate from 37 percent to 36 percent and its statement now says recent data "confirm" the decline in the underlying inflation trend.
- The policy rate was cut from 37 percent to 36 percent, the overnight lending rate from 40 percent to 39 percent and the overnight borrowing rate from 35.5 percent to 34.5 percent.
- The inflation assessment strengthened: indicators moved from "pointing to" a decline in the underlying trend to "confirming" it.
- The statement says weak domestic demand is "continuing".
- Upside risks from energy prices are said to "persist" due to geopolitical tensions that "remain alive".
- Guidance shifted from how decisions are taken to the "size and timing of steps" being set in a meeting-by-meeting, prudent manner, while the commitment to a tight stance and to tightening if the outlook deteriorates was kept.
Tone of the statement: more dovish than the previous one — The cut together with the decline being "confirmed", weak demand "continuing" and the reference to the "size and timing of steps" point toward easing, partly offset by the note that upside risks persist.
Stance of the statement: +2.0 (slightly hawkish) · previous statement +4.0 — Despite the cut, the statement stresses that the tight stance will be maintained until price stability is achieved, that policy will be tightened if the outlook deteriorates, and a cautious stance against upside risks.
The summary, tone and score were produced by a language model (claude-code/opus, prompt version 2); they are no substitute for the official text. The score uses the same -10 (very dovish) to +10 (very hawkish) scale as the speeches.
Difference from the previous statement
43 words added, 26 words removed. Additions are underlined, removals struck through.
The Monetary Policy Committee (the Committee) has decided to [removed: keep] [added: reduce] the policy rate (the one-week repo auction rate) [removed: at] [added: from] 37 [added: percent to 36] percent. The Committee has also [removed: maintained] [added: lowered] the Central Bank overnight lending rate [added: from 40 percent to 39 percent] and the overnight borrowing rate [removed: at 40 percent and] [added: from] 35.5 [removed: percent, respectively.] [added: percent to 34.5 percent.]
Despite monthly fluctuations, recent inflation figures and leading indicators [removed: suggest that] [added: confirm] the [added: deceleration in the] underlying trend of [removed: inflation is decelerating.] [added: inflation.] Data on economic activity as well as the limited pass-through of supply shocks to domestic prices [removed: confirm the weakness in] [added: indicate that] domestic [removed: demand.] [added: demand remains weak.] On the other hand, elevated energy prices [removed: amid] [added: due to ongoing] geopolitical [removed: developments] [added: tensions continue to] pose an [removed: upward] [added: upside] risk to the inflation outlook. The impact of geopolitical developments on the inflation outlook through the cost channel, economic activity and expectations is closely monitored.
The tight monetary policy stance, which will be maintained until price stability is achieved, will strengthen the disinflation process through demand, exchange rate, and expectation channels. The Committee will determine the policy rate by taking into account realized and expected inflation and its underlying trend in a way to ensure the tightness required by the projected disinflation path in line with the interim targets. [removed: Monetary] [added: The size and timing of] policy [removed: decisions are made] [added: steps will be decided] prudently on a meeting-by-meeting basis with a focus on the inflation outlook. In case of a significant and persistent deterioration in the inflation outlook, monetary policy stance will be tightened. The Committee reiterated that it remains highly attentive to upside risks on inflation.
In case of unanticipated developments in credit and deposit markets, monetary transmission mechanism will be supported via additional macroprudential measures. Liquidity conditions will continue to be closely monitored and liquidity management tools will continue to be used effectively.
The Committee will make its policy decisions so as to create the monetary and financial conditions necessary to reach the 5 percent inflation target in the medium term. The Committee will make its decisions in a predictable, data-driven and transparent framework.
The summary of the Monetary Policy Committee Meeting will be released within five working days.
Source: Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye. Reproduced with the source acknowledged and for non-commercial purposes, as the CBRT's terms of use permit. Official statement →
What do the minutes say?
The MPC meeting summary have not been published yet; they usually follow one week after the decision, and a summary will appear here.