ECB rate decision · 29 October 2026
Policy rate held at 2.50%.
Decision
Deposit facility rate
Expectation before the decision
The results of the survey collected before this decision have not been published yet, or there is no expectation recorded before the decision. They will appear here once published.
What changed in the statement?
The ECB kept its three key interest rates unchanged (deposit facility at 2.50%) after September's 25 basis point hike, saying the energy shock has grown while adding that underlying inflation has so far remained broadly stable and financing conditions have tightened.
- The decision shifted from a 25 basis point hike to a hold, with the deposit facility, main refinancing operations and marginal lending facility rates remaining at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90%.
- The statement that inflation 'is set to remain well above target for an extended period' was dropped and replaced by the observation that underlying inflation has so far remained broadly stable and wages show no material response at this stage.
- It added that energy prices have continued to rise and that the increased magnitude and duration of the energy shock are likely to drive up inflation and lower growth, keeping upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.
- A new assessment says financing conditions have tightened since the last meeting and are likely to weigh on inflation and growth.
- September's staff projections (3.0% inflation and 0.9% growth for 2026) and the scenario discussion are absent from this statement, while the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach with no pre-commitment is unchanged.
Tone of the statement: mixed, with changes in both directions — Dropping 'well above target for an extended period' and stressing stable underlying inflation and tighter financing conditions point dovish, while noting that energy prices keep rising and the shock's magnitude and duration have increased points hawkish.
Stance of the statement: +2.0 (slightly hawkish) · previous statement +5.0 — The hold and the data-dependent, non-committal guidance suggest a balanced stance, but the statement emphasises upside risks to inflation and the energy shock's likely inflationary effect, tempered by stable underlying inflation and tighter financing conditions.
The summary, tone and score were produced by a language model (claude-code/opus, prompt version 2); they are no substitute for the official text. The score uses the same -10 (very dovish) to +10 (very hawkish) scale as the speeches.
Difference from the previous statement
105 words added, 228 words removed. Additions are underlined, removals struck through.
[removed: The conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period.]
[removed: The baseline of the new ECB staff projections sees headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. For inflation excluding energy and food, the baseline foresees 2.5% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028. Compared with June, the baseline projection for inflation in 2026 is unchanged, while it has been revised up for 2027 and 2028. The baseline projection for economic growth is 0.9% for 2026, 1.4% for 2027 and 1.5% for 2028. This is an upward revision for both 2026 and 2027, mainly reflecting the greater than expected resilience of the euro area economy.]
[removed: In relation to the energy shock, the updated scenarios put together by staff illustrate the broad range of outcomes for how growth and inflation would evolve under different assumptions about its intensity and duration, as well as its indirect and second-round effects.] The Governing Council today decided to [removed: raise] [added: keep] the three key ECB interest rates [removed: by 25 basis points.] [added: unchanged.] [removed: The outlook remains highly uncertain, with] [added: Energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside] risks to the [removed: upside for] inflation [added: outlook] and [added: downside risks] to the [removed: downside for economic growth.] [added: growth outlook. While the full effects of the energy shock are still unfolding, underlying inflation has remained broadly stable so far and wages do not show a material response at this stage. The increased magnitude and duration of the energy shock, as well as the implications for indirect and second-round effects, are likely to drive up inflation and lower growth. Financing conditions have tightened since the Governing Council’s last meeting, which is likely to weigh on inflation and growth.] [removed: Today’s decision underscores the] [added: The] Governing [removed: Council’s commitment] [added: Council is committed] to setting monetary policy to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term.
[removed: With today’s decision, the] [added: The] Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the [removed: uncertainty caused by the conflict.] [added: current elevated uncertainty.] It will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance. In particular, the Governing Council’s interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it, in light of the incoming economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
Key ECB interest rates
[removed: The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points. Accordingly, the] [added: The] interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will [removed: be increased to] [added: remain unchanged at] 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90% [removed: respectively, with effect from 16 September 2026.] [added: respectively.]
Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)
The APP and PEPP portfolios are declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
***
The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target in the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.
The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.
Source: European Central Bank (ECB). © European Central Bank; reproduced with the source acknowledged. Official statement →
What do the minutes say?
The Account of the meeting have not been published yet; they usually follow four weeks after the decision, and a summary will appear here.