Rate decisions
Each decision is compared with the expectation formed before it: market pricing (BoE) or surveys of analysts and economists (Fed, ECB, CBRT). The statement is compared with the previous one and the changes are summarised. How to read a rate decision
September 2026
- CBRT10 September 2026 · 37.00% (hold)in line with expectationsstatement: more dovish
July 2026
- CBRT23 July 2026 · 37.00% (hold)in line with expectations
June 2026
- CBRT11 June 2026 · 37.00% (hold)in line with expectations
April 2026
- CBRT22 April 2026 · 37.00% (hold)dovish surprise (−75 bp)
March 2026
- CBRT12 March 2026 · 37.00% (hold)hawkish surprise (+92 bp)
January 2026
- CBRT22 January 2026 · 37.00% (−100 bp)hawkish surprise (+50 bp)
The archive starts in January 2026. There is no republishable expectation source for the BoJ and RBA, so no surprise is calculated for them.