Rate decisions
Each decision is compared with the expectation formed before it: market pricing (BoE) or surveys of analysts and economists (Fed, ECB, CBRT). The statement is compared with the previous one and the changes are summarised. How to read a rate decision
September 2026
- Fed16 September 2026 · 3.75–4.00% (+25 bp)hawkish surprise (+25 bp)statement: more hawkish
July 2026
- Fed29 July 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
June 2026
- Fed17 June 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
April 2026
- Fed29 April 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
March 2026
- Fed18 March 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
January 2026
- Fed28 January 2026 · 3.50–3.75% (hold)in line with expectations
The archive starts in January 2026. There is no republishable expectation source for the BoJ and RBA, so no surprise is calculated for them.